Thursday, September 20, 2007

Now, even Moore's Law is changing

A new century has meant new rules for most aspects of the IT business. Now, even the sacred 'Moore's Law' of microprocessors is changing, by the admission of Gordon Moore who created it.

First, here's a backgrounder on what Moore's Law is. It is the maxim which declares a doubling of transistors on a computer chip roughly every two years, therefore providing a double increase in speed and performance.

For 40 years, since 1965, Gordon Moore created this principle and it has held true scientifically. However, the fact that the space on a 'chip' is finite, means that at some point it won't be possible to continue in that direction.It is expected that within a decade, or so, that will happen.

In non-scientific terms, what this means is that PC processors from Intel have doubled in performance every two years and it ingeniously also applies to other technology gadgets.

Back in the early nineties, this rule worked perfectly for me, as my 33MHz 486 PC was replaced by a 66MHz Pentium two years later, then replaced by a 120MHz Pentium two further years afterwards.

Then, I just stopped counting megahertz, and it seems that Intel stopped too, but that's another story! Anyhow, Moore now predicts that processor performance it won't grow by that somewhat exact margin anymore. It even seems like it won't grow at all in the conventional methods after a certain threshold.

Who is Gordon Moore? Born in 1929, he is the the co-founder and Chairman Emeritus of Intel Corporation and the author of Moore's Law.

What is Moore also saying? He claims that "the interface between computers and biology now is a very interesting area", which may be the next driver of computer performance. In other words, bio-energy rather than silicon. Back to Moore's law, almost every measure of the capabilities of digital electronic devices is linked to Moore's Law: processing speed, memory capacity, even the resolution of LCD screens and digital cameras.

All of these are improving at exponential rates as well. This has changed dramatically the usefulness of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy.

For those of us who have been following the development in computer technology since the 1980s, it's such a stunning difference to think 'where we were and where we are now'. Yet, there has been a somewhat steady predictability about it all, knowing that processing power will improve carrying with it all the advancements we've seen in multimedia.

Moore's Law was a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, and for scientists it is like an 'earthquake' when this principle no longer applies. Everything changes, wait for the next technological earthquake!

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

400 million downloads: You all helped 'Spread Firefox'

On November 9, 2004, users worldwide started a movement called ‘Spread Firefox’. Supported by tens of thousands of contributors, it took just 99 days to deliver 25 million downloads of Firefox.

Apperantly, the world was desperate for a web browser alternative to Internet Explorer (IE). Microsoft was probably watching and not worried at all at the prospect of ‘another Netscape’, let alone an open-source competitor not supported by a corporate owner!

Well, we all know how that turned out!

In less than six months, the number of downloads doubled to 50 million, and it turned open source into a household word and reasserted the supremacy of choice and simplicity.

Firefox didn’t overwhelm users with pop-ups, and gave them a new browser not yet targeted by hackers and malware writers, without worries of infecting their systems. But, best of all, it worked well compared to IE!

It took the Spread Firefox global community of activists only one year to reach the 100 million downloads mark. It seemed that there was something about the brand, and it’s ‘common man versus corporate giant’ that made it fun to use and a statement cherished by anti-corporate types.

That’s why some 50,000 websites and blogs carry the ‘Spread Firefox’ buttons and banners, making Firefox one of the world’s most recognized and respected brands.

Accordingly, last year, it was reported that the number of downloads hit the 200 million mark. Guess what, it’s doubled in the year since then!

Firefox has reached 400 million downloads.

Obviously, the Mozilla organization, the ‘patron’ of Firefox is trumpeting this as a victory.

The official statement goes as follows: “You all demonstrated that not even the world’s most powerful companies can keep people from a better, safer, and faster Web experience. You all, the grass roots and heart of the Firefox movement, have helped hundreds of millions of people find that better, safer, and faster Web.”

The Mozilla foundation is non-profit, and the browser is indeed a strong product so you’d have to accept most of that statement as true!

And it’s all happened in just three, short years!

As you would expect, Microsoft’s Internet Explorer lost some market share, and has been updated and developed to counter this Firefox blitz.

Still, Firefox grows and continues to take market share from IE. We’re not kidding ourselves, IE will continue to lead the market, but Firefox has achieved so much and there’s more to come.

Wait till Firefox handles every language in the world properly. Arabic support is available but still needs some work, and web developers across the region are now making their sites Firefox compliant. Even at this early stage, there’s a considerable percentage of Firefox penetration among Middle East-based users.

Bravo Mozilla, congrats to Firefox-ers. Long live the open source revolution that promotes better performance from corporates who forgot that users have choices.

zanasser@gmail.com

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Fraudsters cash in on generosity of Arab users?

It’s a known fact that the latest viruses and malware depend on ‘social engineering’ concepts to spread widely. What this basically means is that these malware writers attempt to tap into typical user weaknesses, like claiming that an attached file includes special surprise- a prize, or images of a beautiful women, or the solution to a problem .... and more.

Nowadays, techniques to infect a user’s PC even include soliciting a visit to an infected website, which will damage a user’s PC. To quote a warning from TrendLabs, “a number of new attacks take the form of commentary on current events, especially natural disasters. When concerned individuals visit a nominated website to offer their assistance, they receive misleading instructions to download spyware or visit a compromised website.”

"Recent history has proven the effectiveness of these techniques. The warning goes onto explain that “events such as the recent flooding in the western Yemen, the Pakistan earthquake of 2005 or even the fatal poisonings of almost 2000 camels in Saudi Arabia provide the kind of stories with which devious operators can get a toe-hold in an individual's computer.”

Apperantly, TrendLabs actually think that users in our region are more susceptible to these schemes than others across the world!This interesting, and rather entertaining announcement from TrendLabs goes as far as saying that “Internet criminals are exploiting regional traditions of generosity and hospitality”.

Well, first of all, we thank Trend Micro for deciding that we’re the most generous users in the world, but we tend to disagree, and even object, to the notion that we are ‘gullible by tradition’!

The company cites “the rapid take-up of personal computing and Internet access in the Gulf region which has meant that many first-time users are exposed to some long-established online scams.”I don’t think users in the region are that naive, or any worse in this regard than users in emerging areas of the world like China, India and Eastern Europe. For a start, most scams come out of those countries anyway, and are even prepared in their local languages. Surely, they are more vulnerable!

On the plus side, rather than just focusing on the negative ‘gullibility issue’, there’s the good publicity we as Arabs are getting as being ‘good intentioned people’.

The announcement says that “People's good intentions lead them to websites that purportedly help out the victims of earthquakes, floods or other natural disasters, but these open the door to malware and identity theft.”

So, people in our region have better intentions and are more innocent than other regions of the world?

Sorry, but I doubt it. It’s just marketing spin aimed at the region, but there obviously is a serious worldwide problem behind this story. Yes, you should take note of such scams, but don’t be too concerned about them being aimed at us ‘generous an gullible’ Arabs.

It’s just a case of human behavior and inexperience, no matter where you’re from!