A quick look back at 2008

Another year in computing, another set of incidents, product launches and controversy.

The year kicked off with the damaged under-sea Internet cables (and seems to be ending with a similar problem). Throughout late January and early February, users across the Middle East suffered from slow Internet services and there’s been a lot of talk since then regarding the reliability of the cabling systems. There doesn’t seem to be a solution going into 2009.

On the topic of Internet, this year was marked by an impressive increase in user numbers, and a wide-scale site blocking and banning, across the Middle East. The main victims were YouTube, Facebook and Twitter in countries like Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia. An outcry followed, and authorities have since applied methods of ‘selective blocking by page’ rather than a whole site.

Also, various Arab sites got blocked too, like Jeeran.com in Saudi Arabia. Telecommunication service sites like Skype, remain blocked, of course, as long as government owned telecom companies have a say. From the looks of it, however, most of the site blocking problem could ease next year.

Back to the user numbers, it is estimated that there are around 40 Million Arabs online. Broadband has taken off, and Arab activity on social networking sites is peaking with reports suggesting that the number of Arabs on Facebook has grown 66% in one year!

2008 was also the year when sales of portable computers exceeded desktops, across the world, and in some Middle Eastern markets. Manufacturers attributed this to dropping prices of laptops, and the Internet revolution whereby people want to work on the move.

Google continued it’s all-conquering spree, releasing Arabic versions of every product- even recently including a Hijri calendar- and giving every local or regional website a run for their money. The company’s commitment to the region was increased, and attention to Jordan grew with several visits of top staff.

The IT sector as a whole in Jordan grew in 2008, although it will take some time for numbers to emerge. This occurred in spite of a local ‘economic contraction’ earlier this year, which was followed by the hammer of the global recession later in the year. So, looking to 2009, Jordan’s IT sector has much to worry about, but we won’t be the only ones in the region, or across the world to suffer.

As the year draws to a close, it is somewhat depressing that all the technology developments, massive growth in Internet users and the advancement of IT services across the country and region will now face up to the harsh reality of a global economic slowdown.

Every year, I look into my crystal ball and make predictions. This year I won’t. I’ll settle for hoping for ‘limited damages’ next year! Happy New Year.

zanasser@gmail.com

What the recession could mean to the Middle East IT sector

It is now clear that the world is in an economic recession. What does it mean to the IT sector in Jordan and the Middle East?

If you’re the technology head at your company, obviously management will ask you to make cuts.

You’ll have to ‘eliminate’ redundant hardware and software assets, large maintenance contracts and excess capacity of any kind.

Operation efficiency will become the focus, and you will have to achieve the business strategic objectives at a lower budget, and sometimes argue against cuts because of the mission critical nature of some IT operations.

A good way to start, unfortunately, is by ‘squeezing’ your vendors. The rates for the software services they offer must come down, and the maintenance contract will be re-negotiated, and investment in hardware might by put off for a while.

This leads us to the impact on hardware and software suppliers, who will feel the pinch but should, in turn, plan for the downturn by cuts of their own, that will enable them to relay the savings to clients, who will be demanding discounts.

If a company employs ‘project teams’, these people will have to go when projects dry up, and if top marketing and sales people have big salaries and commissions, they’ll suffer from cuts or will just be let go as sales dry up.

It’s not a pretty picture, but it’s already started across the world and, although the Middle East seems like a cash rich region, the effects are beginning to be felt.

In Jordan, we’re used to tight economic conditions, but the last few years have seen an expansion in IT and Telecom services to such a degree that makes us vulnerable too.

An IT manager I talked to summed it up nicely, saying that there are always some excesses which are the first things that must go, that’s easy, then there are slightly painful decisions that make it challenging to deliver the same levels of IT services, but can be managed with better efficiency and resource optimization, then we cancel part of the of the IT services!

Will it get to that? Depends how long this recessions last!

zanasser@gmail.com